We are but a raisin in the sun.

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Sometimes we don't pay a lot attention to things that are right in front of our own eyes. The biggest, most obvious things are often ignored. Consider for instance the sun. It is a massive nuclear reactor that mainly takes hydrogen and turns it into energy. It is also a magnetically active star with a magnetic field that is strong and in constant flux and this produces things like sunspots, solar flares and solar wind.

Every second the sun coverts 4 million tonnes of matter into energy and sends solar radiation through the galaxy. Now what role might this giant furnace play in global warming? Of course we know that all heat on the planet comes directly, or indirectly, from the energy of the sun. But the sun changes global weather in other ways as well.

Recently two scientific papers dealt with this impact. And here we find two interesting stories. The first is about the science itself and how this discovery points to solar activity as a major contributor to global warming. The second story is the fact that these new science papers were ignored by the media.

First, we should cover what the papers said. Two physicists from Duke University, produced a report entitled "Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record." Not exactly the sort of title to attract much attention. Nothing dire in the title at all. (Download pdf version here.)

They studied the global surface temperature for the last 400 years. They say: "We find good correspondence between global temperature and solar induced temperature curves during the pre-industrial period such as the cooling periods occurring during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825). The sun might have contributed approximately 50% of the observed global warming since 1900."

Whoa, back that up for a second. "The sun might have contributed approximately 50% of the observed global warming since 1900." So this one natural factor, totally beyond human control, could be responsible for half of the small amount of warming we've seen in the last century.

They also note that for the last century solar activity and global warming corresponded. "During the 20th century one continues to observe a significant correlation between the solar and temperature patterns: both records show an increase from 1900 to 1950, a decrease from 1950 to 1970, and again an increase from 1970 to 2000."

They do find that there is some surplus warming not explained in their theory. This may, or may not, be anthropogenic in origin. In others words it might be man-made or not. They say the difference they observe could be partially due to "spurious non-climatic contamination of the surface observations such as heat-island and land-use effects. Some authors suggest that the recent surface warming is overestimated... but other authors would disagree."

Basically they are saying that the way we take the global temperature might have some problems and that some of the temperature increase is due to problems with estimating global temperatures.

In conclusion they say that "solar change might significantly alter climate" and "trigger several climate feedbacks". "Most of the sun-climate coupling mechanisms are probably still unknown. However they should be incorporated into the climate models to better understand the real impact of the sun on climate because they might strongly amplify the effects of small solar activity increases."

In essence they think that about half of all observable warming can be attributed to solar activity. And they concede that most the ways in which the sun effects global temperatures are still unknown and not being included in the global models on which the global warming hysteria is based.

Apparently one way in which solar activity impacts climate is no longer a mystery. The Danish National Space Center did some studies to see how solar activity might impact climate and they discovered a process heretofore unknown.

Basically they find that as stars explode in the galaxy they change cloud patterns on Earth. Hard to believe that things so distant could impact us directly. The press release from the Danish agency said: "It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the Milky Way, penetrate Earth's atmosphere they produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons. Now, results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons significantly promote the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei on which water vapour condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth's atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first time. "

The agency created a reaction chamber and created inside it a duplicate of the lower atmosphere. They used ultraviolet light to heat the chamber duplicating the sun's rays and then they hit the chamber with cosmic rays. They found that the cosmic rays produces electrons which accelerate "the formation of stable, ultra-small clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules which are building blocks for the cloud condensation nuclei. A vast numbers of such microscopic droplets appeared, floating in the air in the reaction chamber." These droplets are basically what produce clouds.

Low-altitude clouds cool the Earth. "Hence, variations in cloud cover caused by cosmic rays can change the surface temperature. The existence of such a cosmic connection to Earth's climate might thus help to explain past and present variations in Earth's climate."

For the first time these researchers now know how cosmic rays form clouds can change global temperature. Henrik Svensmark, the Director for Sun-Climate Science at the Space Center says: "This is a completely new result within climate science." Remember if this is a completely new resultthat means it has not been used in the computer models upon which global warming theory relies.

The head of the Space Center said these studies answer those who dismissed this theory. "Some said there was no conceivable way in which cosmic rays could influence cloud cover. [This] experiment now shows how they do so, and should help to put the cosmic-ray connection firmly onto the agenda of international climate research."

So exploding stars in distant galaxies bombard us with cosmic rays which help produce clouds which induce cooling. "Cloud cover increases when the intensity of cosmic rays grows and decreases when the intensity declines." And over the last century, the century of global warming, our "Sun's magnetic field which shields Earth from cosmic rays more than doubled, thereby reducing the average influx of cosmic rays. The resulting reduction in cloudiness, especially of low-altitude clouds, may be a significant factor in the global warming Earth has undergone during the last century. However, until now, there has been no experimental evidence of how the causal mechanism linking cosmic rays and cloud formation may work."

This is a mechanism which has been ignored until now. What percentage of global warming is due to the reduction of clouds caused by the reduction of cosmic rays hitting the Earth? The computer models used to estimate man's role in global warming have simply not had this information in the past. So how accurate is their estimate that what we are seeing is anthropogenic?

And now for the story within the story. Or more accurately the story that didn't materialize. Recently in the UK the government issued a report by Sir Nicholas Stern which claimed that global warming is anthropogenic and dangerous and that severe measures must be taken now to avoid disaster. Did Stern know that up to half of global warming is due to solar activity? Does he know that cosmic rays change cloud formation impacting on global temperatures?

Considering his report came out about the same time these two new papers came out it unlikely he took them into consideration. His report is of tree gobbling size, over 700 pages. But is it worth the large amounts of paper upon which it is written? Or was it outdate before it was released?

Stern's report is scary predicting major catastrophes and disasters. And according to Google news this one report has generated more than 2,000 stories in the major publications of the world. If you claim disaster is nigh and man is responsible you get lots of press.

But what about these two important scientific papers? How much press coverage did they get? Using the same Google news they got virtually none. The experiments from Danish National Space Center got some coverage by Fox News and MSNBC. A few small conservative sites mentioned the experiment but otherwise no major newspapers are listed in Google News as having reported on the matter. And that other report, which said that up to half of all global warming is directly caused by the sun, it got even less.

Just to be sure I went to the New York Times, the major US newspaper of record, and the BBC, England's premier news source. I couldn't find anything about these reports at either site. I guess it is fair to say you have a "consensus" on global warming when important evidence to the contrary is simply ignored.

Galileo said: "The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still ripen a bunch of grapes as if it had nothing else in the universe to do." True, and apparently it can change a planet's temperature as well.

Posted by Jim at 8:57 am on November 2, 2006

All items in this journal reflect the personal opinions of the author and are not necessarily those of the Institute for Liberal Values or its Board members.

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